According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are nine teams that have at least a 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff, but only six have at least a 1% chance of actually winning the national title.
So you’re saying there’s a chance … for Texas?!
The Longhorns are No. 6, one of a handful of surprises in the preseason projections that also include No. 4 Clemson, No. 9 Pittsburgh and No. 10 Auburn. Yes, eyebrows are raised, but here’s a look at how each team can actually do it, what its chances are (according to ESPN’s FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor) and how the College Football Playoff selection committee will evaluate it:
Preseason FPI: No. 1
Preseason SP+: No. 3
Chance to win conference: 50%
Chance to make the CFP: 79%
Chance to play in the national title game: 52%
Biggest obstacle: It’s still Georgia. Georgia has a 90% chance to win the SEC East Division, while Alabama has an 85% chance to win the West, according to FPI, so it’s not only possible but likely they will face each other in the SEC championship again. Odds are that Georgia hasn’t forgotten what happened last time.
What the committee will like: S-E-C! S-E-C! Even as committee members have rotated, one constant over the past eight seasons has been multiple SEC teams ranked — including four-loss teams like Arkansas and Texas A&M last year. That always helps Alabama’s strength of schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 10 loss at Texas. This is the Crimson Tide’s one chance in the nonconference schedule to impress the committee with a Power 5 road win. If the Longhorns are as good as ESPN’s FPI is giving them credit for, this could go a long way in overcoming a league loss or — gasp — helping the Tide sneak in if they don’t win the division. But if Alabama can’t beat Texas, its nonconference wins against Utah State, Austin Peay and Louisiana Monroe aren’t going to help.
Preseason FPI: No. 2
Preseason SP+: No. 1
Chance to win conference: 74%
Chance to make the CFP: 82% (highest in FPI)
Chance to play in the national title game: 50%
Biggest obstacle: Michigan. The Wolverines knocked Ohio State out of contention last year with their historic win in the rivalry, and they’re good enough to do it again.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Notre Dame. Remember how important Cincinnati‘s win was against the Fighting Irish last year? While Ohio State doesn’t need it as desperately as the Bearcats did, it could certainly resonate in similar fashion throughout the entire season — and possibly be the difference in a debate if the Buckeyes were to lose to Michigan and miss the Big Ten title game with one loss.
What the committee won’t like: Stumbles in crossover games. As if winning the Big Ten East wasn’t difficult enough, Ohio State this year has to face Wisconsin and Iowa from the West.
Preseason FPI: No. 3
Preseason SP+: No. 2
Chance to win conference: 46%
Chance to make the CFP: 73%
Chance to play in the national title game: 43%
Biggest obstacle: Going 3-0 against the West Division, including at home against Auburn and at Mississippi State during the regular season, and then whomever they would face in the SEC title game. Georgia can lose a regular-season game, but then it’s in a must-win situation in the championship tilt.
What the committee will like: Road wins. Georgia’s schedule includes neutral-site games against Oregon and Florida as well as true road trips to South Carolina and then to Mississippi State and Kentucky in back-to-back weeks in November. All of those teams have a great chance to finish in the committee’s top 25.
What the committee won’t like: No East Division title. It’s not impossible for Georgia to finish in the top four without winning its division (Alabama and Ohio State have both done it), but the SEC East isn’t as strong as those others. If that were to happen, Georgia would need the Ducks to have a spectacular season to help boost its résumé, and it would have had to win almost all of its other games in convincing fashion. The Bulldogs would be held to the same standard as Notre Dame without a conference title, meaning they would have to be “unequivocally” one of the four best teams.
Preseason FPI: No. 4
Preseason SP+: No. 5
Chance to win conference: 59%
Chance to make the CFP: 59%
Chance to play in the national title game: 26%
Biggest obstacle: Nov. 5 at Notre Dame. This should be Clemson’s biggest opportunity to impress the selection committee on the national stage. If Clemson loses this game, it can still finish in the top four with an ACC title, but it’s not a guarantee. It still depends on how the other Power 5 champions fare in similarly difficult nonconference games.
What the committee will like: A 4-0 nonconference record. Clemson shouldn’t have any problems with Furman or Louisiana Tech (especially at home), but if the Tigers can win at South Bend, Indiana, and beat rival South Carolina at home, they’ll have a much better case for the top four as an ACC champ. South Carolina is making strides under Shane Beamer and is a potential top 25 opponent.
What the committee won’t like: No. 44 strength of schedule. Of the top 12 teams in the FPI, only Pitt (No. 54) is ranked lower.
Preseason FPI: No. 5
Preseason SP+: No. 8
Chance to win conference: N/A
Chance to make the CFP: 18%
Chance to play in the national title game: 6%
Biggest obstacle: No conference championship game. As long as the CFP stays at four teams, Notre Dame’s margin for error is realistically one loss. While other contenders are facing ranked opponents for an opportunity to punctuate their résumés with one more win and a title, Notre Dame faces a higher burden in the selection committee meeting room as an independent. There are times it benefits the Irish, because they don’t have to worry about losing in a league title game and dropping out of the top four, but any team without a conference championship has to be deemed unequivocally one of the four best in the country. The committee has to have no doubt.
What the committee will like: The No. 12 strength of schedule, including a trip to Ohio State to start the season. A great way for Notre Dame to overcome not having a conference title? Beat a Power 5 conference champion. Notre Dame could add a win over the ACC champion too, if it beats Clemson and the Tigers go on to win their league.
What the committee won’t like: A November loss to rival USC. This could be a playoff play-in game. If the Irish don’t beat Ohio State, they’ll likely have to run the table. And if the Trojans are in the hunt for the Pac-12 title, a win against the top-25 Irish would be just what the beleaguered league needs to get back into the top four.
Preseason FPI: No. 6
Preseason SP+: No. 33
Chance to win conference: 41%
Chance to make the CFP: 21%
Chance to play in the national title game: 7%
Biggest obstacle: Winning the Big 12. Before anyone starts talking playoff in Austin, the Longhorns need to win the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Baylor played for the league title last year, when Texas finished a forgettable 5-7.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 10 win against Alabama. This one’s a no-brainer. If the Longhorns somehow make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and lose, a victory against Alabama could be enough for a top-four finish.
What the committee won’t like: A stumble to an unranked opponent. The committee will forgive a loss to Alabama with a Big 12 title. A second loss to an unheralded opponent would be more difficult to overcome, even with a conference championship; and last year, Texas rattled off a string of three straight such losses (versus Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia).
Preseason FPI: No. 7
Preseason SP+: No. 4
Chance to win conference: 7%
Chance to make the CFP: 15%
Chance to play in the national title game: 4%
Biggest obstacle: Winning the Big Ten East. It’s not just Ohio State that Michigan has to be concerned about, as the Wolverines lost to Michigan State last year. While that loss didn’t impact Michigan’s CFP ranking, it put the Wolverines in a position where they needed help to get into the Big Ten title game and a win against Ohio State.
What the committee will like: A repeat of 2021. Michigan beat Ohio State then dominated Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. The blueprint is there.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn aren’t going to help Michigan. It’s hard to imagine the Big Ten champion being left out, but what if Michigan’s only loss is in the Big Ten title game? Or its only loss is to Ohio State? That nonconference lineup could be the difference.
Preseason FPI: No. 8
Preseason SP+: No. 7
Chance to win conference: 27%
Chance to make the CFP: 13%
Chance to play in the national title game: 4%
Biggest obstacle: Turnover. This isn’t the Oklahoma the selection committee has known. Coach Lincoln Riley left for USC, and quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler both transferred, along with several other talented offensive players.
What the committee will like: A strong finish. Oklahoma’s schedule is backloaded, with a trip to West Virginia sandwiched between home games against Baylor and Oklahoma State. The Sooners finish their regular season on the road against Texas Tech. If Oklahoma can survive November, the Sooners should be in a position to play for the Big 12 title, assuming they avoid a disastrous start.
What the committee won’t like: The No. 42 strength of schedule, which includes nonconference games against UTEP, Kent State and Nebraska. The Sept. 17 trip to Lincoln isn’t a gimme, but if OU is playoff-worthy, it should be 3-0 against this lineup.
Preseason FPI: No. 9
Preseason SP+: No. 13
Chance to win conference: 16%
Chance to make the CFP: 10%
Chance to play in the national title game: 2%
Biggest obstacle: Respect. The defending ACC champs finished No. 12 in the final CFP ranking last fall, an afterthought on the national stage in large part because of close losses to Western Michigan and Miami. The Panthers, though, beat Clemson and No. 16 Wake Forest, and they return the most production in the nation, according to FPI.
What the committee will like: The talent on the team. Incoming transfer Kedon Slovis posted a 73.4 QBR over the past three seasons, the highest among Pac-12 quarterbacks with at least 15 starts in that span.
What the committee won’t like: The No. 54 schedule strength is the worst of the top 14 FPI teams. The nonconference schedule includes West Virginia and Tennessee, which could ultimately prove to be respectable wins, along with Western Michigan and Rhode Island. The Panthers need ACC Coastal Division teams to be ranked, because the only crossover opponent in the regular season is Louisville.
Preseason FPI: No. 10
Preseason SP+: No. 25
Chance to win conference: 1%
Chance to make the CFP: 3%
Chance to play in the national title game: 1%
Biggest obstacle: Winning the SEC West. Auburn finished 6-7 last fall under Bryan Harsin, including just three SEC wins. Now it has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country, which is a double-edged sword. It’s the perfect lineup to impress the selection committee — or eliminate Auburn quickly. In addition to an Oct. 8 crossover game at Georgia, Auburn is also on the road against Mississippi State and rival Alabama in November.
What the committee will like: Auburn’s defense, which is projected as the seventh-best unit in FBS. The Tigers ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency last season, and they rank 18th in returning defensive production, according to FPI.
What the committee won’t like: Two losses by mid-October. It happened last year, and it could happen again. Auburn lost to Penn State and Georgia before the heart of the SEC schedule even began.